Obama Risk

It is becoming clear that Democrats are betting on U.S. defeat in Iraq to win the White House in 2008. They most fear that the Bush troop surge may succeed, as recent reports suggest, and have introduced legislation that are designed to engineer a U.S. failure. The Los Angeles Times reported on March 12^th that American military planners have begun plotting a fallback strategy in case Congressional actions (and any other reasons) result in an Iraq disaster.

Politics is a dirty game but this is real dirty. The Democrats call their strategy the “slow bleed”, which allows them to blame Bush for everything that goes wrong, without assuming responsibility for conducting the war, and appearing as saviors of the nation from the Iraq crisis. They must have a very low opinion of American voters, consider them very naïve and hope to fool them easily.

In his March 11^th Washington Post article titled “The Surge is Succeeding”, Robert Kagan, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, summarized recent positive developments: the report by Fadhil brothers, who are independent Baghdad bloggers, that “early signs are encouraging” (see 3/5 WSJ for their full report); increased number of security tips; decline in number of insurgent attacks; and progress towards a national agreement on sharing oil revenues. Fadhils report that because of reduced violence and the new “clear and hold strategy” many “Baghdadis feel hopeful again about the future, and the fear of civil war is slowly being replaced by optimism.”

Kagan notes that even Brian Williams of NBC Nightly News (3/5 broadcast) reported a dramatic improvement in Ramadi, which is in the heart of Sunni insurgency, since his previous visit and thought “the war has changed”.

Reuters reported on March 14^th that key U.S. and Iraqi officials were cautiously optimistic. Maj. Gen. William B.Caldwell said the level of sectarian killings had dropped significantly in the month since the operation began. “If the high-profile car bombs can be stopped or brought down to a much lower level, we’ll just see an incredible difference in the city overall.”

Obama is the leading proponent of the emerging “cut-and-run” Democratic strategy for Iraq. He is loved by the left wing of the party, which includes Hollywood anti-war Jewish luminaries. He has surged in popularity among African-Americans and hopes to do the same among white women. Hillary Clinton’s lead over Obama has shrunk, which may have forced her to go along with the proposition of withdrawal by a date certain, i.e. March 2008, which she had previously rejected. The Democratic proposals incorporating the March 2008 withdrawal deadline was crafted by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with the help of John Murtha, but the left wing of the party is insisting on immediate withdrawal by withholding funds to finance the war.

Speaking of the Jewish vote, Israel Prime Minister Ehud Olmert warned at the March 13^th session of the pro-Israel AIPAC conference that “those who are concerned for Israel’s security, for the security of the gulf states, and for the stability of the entire Middle East should recognize the need for American success in Iraq, and responsible exit…” Many participants booed House Speaker Pelosi when she said the Iraq war was a failure because it did not make U.S. safer, U.S. military stronger and the region more stable. In sharp contrast, Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner received a rousing reception when he said U.S. had no choice but to win in Iraq and linked the outcome of the war with the future of Israel. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both supported Israel in their speeches but according to one blogger there was widespread skepticism regarding Obama’s true feelings among participants in the meeting.

The point is the support of a few Hollywood Jewish moguls and their raising of couple of million dollars for Obama is not necessarily a sign of broad based Jewish support for the cut-and-run Democratic Iraq agenda.

Will Democrats destroy themselves by nominating Sen. Barack Hussein Obama remains to be seen? Republicans are hoping they will.