Brewing Democratic Disaster?

 

One may think Democrats are a sure bet to win the White House in 2008. After all they won the Congressional elections and now control both the Senate and the House. Bush popularity remains at all time low and Americans are tired of the Iraq war.

 

Think again. In this setting one would expect polls to show leading Democratic presidential contenders defeating leading Republican contenders in the 2008 election. But that is not the case. Republican hopeful Rudi Giuliani had a 48% to 43% edge over Hillary Clinton and was even with Barak Obama at 45% in the April 4-9 Time poll. In all other established polls a similar trend was evident in February and March. Only in a recently started LA Times/Bloomberg poll Obama was ahead of Giuliani by 46% to 42% in the April 4-9 period. Even in the LA Times poll Giuliani defeated Clinton 48% to 42%.

 

The above results are before the do or die slugfest between Clinton and Obama for the Democratic nomination in coming months. Both Democratic contenders have amassed huge amounts of money in the first quarter and are going to go on a spending spree to undercut each other. Obama reduced Clinton lead to 8% (28% to 36%) in an April 10-12 CNN poll. Clinton’s margin reflects an 11-point edge over Obama with black voters, but Obama’s share of black vote shows a steady up trend and Clinton’s black voter edge is likely to diminish as the year unfolds. As the lead continues to narrow, Clinton will have to attack Obama’s soft underbelly of Islamic childhood, intention to send troops to Darfur and limited experience in foreign affairs. Islam will have to become a major issue to divert liberal-reform Jewish voters and money from Obama. The recently released details of fund raising activity shows rich liberal Jews from Hollywood and Chicago are poring money into Obama’s campaign and these funds could become a key factor in giving him the nomination.

 

Obama could win the nomination but has no chance of winning the election. His Muslim childhood will divert a large part of the religious black vote to Republicans and solidify their support among their traditional base of conservative Christians. Questions regarding his willingness to militarily defend Israel will split the Jewish vote. Normally, African Americans and Jews vote heavily Democratic. Democratic strength is on the Pacific coast and Northeast, but Obama will have a hard time making inroads in the Republican South and in Republican leaning conservative heartland.

 

If Clinton wins the nomination, she will face the national tiredness with Clintons. In a March 27^th Harris Interactive poll half of voting age Americans said they would not vote for her. More than one in five Democrats said they would not vote for her. Forty-eight percent of independent voters said they would choose another candidate over Clinton. Fifty-six percent of men said that they would not vote for Clinton, while 45% of women said that she would not be their pick. In addition, 69% of those 62 and older said that they would not vote for Clinton. Nearly half of the respondents said that they dislike Clinton as a person.