Catastrophe Scenarios

Sliding Towards A Catastrophic Outcome

This is not fiction or a fairy tale. The “Catastrophe” scenario risk is more imminent than global warming because many forces are pushing us towards it and any one of the forces could push things over the edge and a disaster could unfold sooner than global warming.

Here are the broad outlines of these forces:

Religious Beliefs

The Iranian Shia believe that the Twelfth Imam (their Messiah) will reveal himself only after a catastrophic event destroys the world as we know, and then create a new harmonious Shia-world to replace the old-world. Within this framework of religious expectations, the Iranian regime could initiate or invite a catastrophic confrontation with Israel or the USA, soon after it succeeds in manufacturing an atomic bomb.

Once again, this is not a fairy tale: Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes in it and countries in the Middle East consider it as a real possibility. Ms. Karen Elliot House detailed this risky scenario, as seen by the Saudis and others attending the recent Riyadh Islamic nations meeting in her April 4^th WSJ article titled Saudi Balancing Act.

According to the April 2^nd ABC Nightly News report, many respected analysts feel Iran could have an atomic bomb as early as 2009, which is much sooner than the US intelligence agency forecast of sometime after 2015. Iran is expected to install 1000 centrifuges soon and as many 3500 may be operational by the middle of next year, which could provide Tehran enough fuel to manufacture two or three bombs.

In the West, Christian Zionists are becoming influential factor in shaping US and Israel policies. In a speech at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) conference, Rev. John Hagee a leading pro-Israel Christian Zionist said that “50 million evangelicals and 5 million Jews” would work to defend Israel. Rev. Hagee and others focus on a biblical mandate to love the Jewish people and stand up for Israel. Their focus is on biblical prophecy about new and horrific wars, death on an unimaginable scale and a peace that can come only with the Second Coming of Jesus. Rev. Hagee has called for preemptive attacks on Iran, and linked that to Bible prophecy, promising “the greatest war the world has ever seen will soon envelop Israel and Jerusalem.” (Source: Rapturous On Israel, Jewish Times, March 30, 2007.)

Islam has not modernized and is dominated by its 7^th Century dogma of killing Jews and other non-believers if they do not convert. We all hope the religion followed by nearly 1.3 billion people will modernize so that humanity could live in peace, but there are very few signs of meaningful progress in this direction. Recently the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR) denounced “any notion of a Reformation as another attempt by the West to impose its history and philosophy on the Islamic world.” A small group of secular Muslims recently gathered in St. Petersburg, Florida, to advocate modernization of Islam, but individuals representing CAIR attacked the secular concepts advocated by this group. In a late-March article in the Washington Post, titled A More Islamic Islam, Geneive Abdo said: “The problem with this prescription is that …if Muslims are fed a steady diet of Western influence, they, too, will embrace modernity, secularism and everything else the West has to offer…What all this means is that Western hopes for full integration by Muslims in the West are unlikely to be realized and the future of the Islamic world will be much more Islamic than Western.”

A most disturbing aspect of the situation is that some liberals in the West are going overboard in appeasing 7^th century Islamic practices. In the US, recently a judge released a Muslim who was arrested for beating his wife by citing Qu’ran’s permission to do so. Fortunately, that judge was removed soon thereafter from the bench. In Minnesota, Muslim taxi drivers are refusing to carry passengers who carry liquor and the city considered accommodating them by installing two types of lights on the cabs to indicate Muslim and non-Muslim drivers. In Europe, many countries have setup separate schools for Muslims where Islam is taught as part of the curriculum. Some countries have considered permitting Muslim Sharia laws to govern marriages and other social behavior. Fortunately, we are beginning to see a reaction against these developments in Europe.

There is a fallacy in the West that Muslim extremist are a small group, who could be eliminated by force (i.e. killed) or through full integration of Muslims in western societies. This ignores the fact that the extremist can easily recruit and replenish their ranks from the general Muslim population who basically subscribes to their creed because of the fundamental teachings of Islam. Here is what Wafa Sultan, one of the participants in the St. Petersburg conference said: She doesn’t “see any difference between radical Islam and regular Islam”. Ayann Hirsi Ali, a critic of Islam as practiced today, has made similar comments in her recently published biography, the Infidel.

Iranian Economic Deterioration

The catastrophic war scenario probability is increasing because of deteriorating economic situation in Iran. Crude oil exports remain the primary source of revenues, but Iran has to import huge quantities of refined gasoline and new international sanctions will make it even more difficult to jump start industries, which could provide employment to growing number of youths. Furthermore, with increasing domestic oil consumption, crude exports will decline sharply in 20 to 25 years. This two-decade point when Iranian leverage to assert its hegemony over the Middle East will be sharply reduced increases the possibility of a drastic action by Iran in the next 10-15 years.

Nuclear War

The catastrophic war scenario should be taken seriously because of rapidly progressing Iranian nuclear program and the Bush administration and Israeli determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel has nuclear weapons and delivery systems to preemptively attack Iran. The US has a huge navel force in the area. But Iran may feel it will have the upper hand in a conflict because of US problems in Iraq, especially if the US leaves Iraq in a hurry.

It is said that former Iranian president Rafsanjani believes that an atomic bomb will wipe out Israel but the same bomb will merely make a dent in Iran. If Rafsanjani, who is considered a more pragmatic politician, can rationalize the nuclear war in that fashion, it is quite possible a zealot like Ahmadinejad, the current president, could plunge the nation in a nuclear war on the slightest hint of victory.

Pelosi’s Disastrous Visit to Syria

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi met with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad on April 4^th over the objections of President Bush and announced that she had delivered a message from Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert that “Israel was ready to engage in peace talks” with Syria. The problem was that Mr. Olmert did not give her any message to deliver and immediately repudiated her assertion. As the Washington Post’s April 5^th editorial stated: “But Ms. Pelosi’s attempt to establish a shadow presidency is not only counterproductive, it is foolish.”

The comments from US Jews in response to the publication of Olmert statement repudiating Pelosi assertion in the April 5^th Jerusalem Post were even more discerning of growing rift between liberal led Democrats and conservative and pro-Israel Jews. Most of these comments chided Pelosi for her foolish actions and undermining Israel’s security.

Jews have traditionally voted Democratic but with Pelosi and Senate Majority leader Reid acting to undermine US in Iraq and the Middle East, a large proportion of Jews may end up voting Republican, especially if Democrats nominate Barak Hussein Obama.